Last week my wife and returned from vacation in Scotland to find that Ontarians are growing increasingly aware of the province's upcoming referendum on whether to adopt a new Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system. That awareness shot up so much in the 10 days we were gone is a credit to the new advertising that has relentlessly promoted the vote. However, while many now know about the options available, far fewer seem to have a good knowledge of how MMP might function in practice.Curiously for us, our vacation actually gave us an interesting insight into the kind of results that Ontario's new system might produce. Thanks to a friend who works for the Scottish government and a random meeting in a pub, we were invited to have lunch with Robin Harper, leader of the Scottish Green Party. Given this unexpected chance, we took the opportunity to quiz him on how MMP has worked so far in Scotland. The answers were not at all what we had expected.
The Scottish Parliament was (re)established in 1999 with 73 "first-past-the-post" seats and 56 regional seats allocated by proportional vote. As expected, in the first election the smaller parties had some success at the regional level, with the Greens and Socialists receiving 3.5% and 2% of the vote respectively, earning them one seat each. While sounding like a small victory, the parties used their seats to raise important issues and were ultimately able to influence the actions of the government - something that wouldn't have happened in a traditional electoral system.
In Scotland's 2003 election the smaller parties gained even more ground, with the Greens rising to seven members, the Socialists to six, and the Senior Citizens' party getting one. However, the idea that Scottish politics would dissolve into a sea of small parties was put to rest with the 2007 election, which saw the Socialists and Seniors lose all of their seats while the Greens were cut to just two.
Our friends said this change in fortune happened because the latest election was fought over whether there should be a referendum on Scottish independence, leading voters to focus on the larger parties (especially Labour and the Scottish National Party). The shift was not large, with support for the Green's falling only from 6.8% to 4%. However, as Mr. Harper complained to us, the drop was enough to cut the number of Green members by more than half.
The Scottish case clearly shows that MMP does not lead to parliaments being dominated by small parties. Even Germany, which has used MMP since the 1950s, still has just 5 parties in parliament - the same number that Canada had at the federal level in throughout the 1990s. Furthermore, by voting out the Socialist and Senior's parties, Scotland's citizens also demonstrated that they have the power to hold all parties to account for their actions.
With 90 first past the post and 39 regional seats, the new MMP system proposed for Ontario is actually less proportional than the one used in Scotland. As a result, the most dramatic change that we're likely to see is a small number of seats going to one or two parties, with the Ontario Greens (who received close to 3% support in the last election) being the most likely candidate. While small, this change will increase the diversity of the provincial parliament and help to ensure that everyone's voice is heard when new laws are being passed.
Admittedly, the case of Scotland does show that MMP will increase the frequency of minority governments in Ontario. However, the experience of the Scottish Parliament also demonstrates that minority governments operating in an MMP system can actually be quite stable. Under our current system, parties that find themselves in a minority position have an incentive to force a snap election in the hopes of winning a majority (the present federal government is a fine example). In contrast, the remote chance of getting a majority in an MMP system means that there is little benefit from holding a new vote, forcing parties to compromise and focus on governing instead of plotting for a new campaign. Despite returning minority governments in every election since 1999, Scotland has yet to hold an early vote.
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Photos: The Scottish Parliament buildings in Edinburgh, a reenactment of some sort at the Scottish Parliament buildings (complete with rifles and Pikes).
